Every playoff series since the stat was formalized has been decided by some mix of four numbers — shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throws — and one of them matters roughly twice as much as the other three combined.
The framework: Dean Oliver’s four factors
Statistician Dean Oliver distilled winning basketball into four measurable factors: effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate, offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. Each team has an offensive and defensive version of all four, and together they explain nearly all of the scoreboard — which is why every modern front office tracks them possession by possession.
Why eFG% rules the playoffs
Effective field goal percentage adjusts for the extra value of the three-pointer, and in a seven-game series it is the hardest factor to fake. Defenses scheme away an opponent’s first option, but shot quality across 90-plus possessions a night reverts to roster truth. When a team wins the eFG% battle in a playoff game, it wins the game far more often than not — the other three factors mostly explain the exceptions.
Turnovers and the possession war
Turnover rate is the second pillar because a turnover is the only outcome that produces zero shot. Playoff defenses hunt high-usage creators with traps precisely to inflate this number; a two- or three-turnover swing per 100 possessions routinely decides close series. Rebounding percentage and free throw rate are the margins — extra possessions and free points — that swing individual games but rarely overcome a sustained shooting gap.
Reading the 2026 Finals through the factors
The Knicks–Spurs series is a live demonstration: New York’s Game 4 comeback was an eFG% avalanche (a historic second-half three-point barrage) layered on a defensive clamp that spiked San Antonio’s turnover rate. Box scores and factor splits for every game are on NBA.com/stats — pull any series you remember and the four-factor ledger will tell you, almost every time, why it ended the way it did.
That is the quiet beauty of the framework: it converts the noise of a playoff night — runs, whistles, clutch-time chaos — into four numbers a smart fan can check in thirty seconds.
